Hotter and hotter …

It’s worse than we thought. Gee, it’s getting hot.

All the models show it and according to the consensus we all know it.

The thermometer, however, has been uncooperative. To counter this Australian thermometer readings have been homogenised, that is adjusted.

The Bureau of Meteorology have published the improved temperatures as the ACORN data set. The result – an increase in temperature of 0.9 °C over a century. QED.

Two issues cloud the matter somewhat. One is the urban heat island (UHI) effect. Increase the bitumen and the buildings around weather stations and you expect a warming bias in the record. The second issue is the adjustment process. One would expect that, for urban weather stations, either the modern records would be corrected downwards or older records to be corrected upwards, in order to compensate for the UHI. The mechanism the BoM uses for temperature adjustment has not been published. But trust us, we are from the government and are here to help. As was said of another government “the future is certain, only the past is subject to change”.

The past has left a record. In 1933 what was then called CSIR published 74 years of weather records. Twenty years later The Commonwealth Bureau of Census and Statistics published an Official Year Book of Australia which included the mean temperature readings from 1911 to 1940 at 44 locations.

One Chris Gillham has been working very hard to compare the historical records with the ACORN set. And guess what … the older records have been adjusted downwards. Almost half of the vaunted warming has been due entirely to changes in the record. My guess is that the rest is due to the UHI.

My source is Jo Nova where you can find far more detail.

Karma …

The story so far …

In 2002 Rajendra Kumar Pachauri was appointed chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This is supposedly an authoritative agency giving scientific advice to governments regarding what was once called anthropogenic global warming.

Please take note of the word scientific.

Great honour was done to the IPCC by the award of a collective Nobel Prize, as it happens a peace prize. Please note the absence of the word science.

A momentary aside, three years ago Michael Mann, the hockey stick guy, launched a defamation suit against Mark Steyn because of a “knowingly false comparison” between climate science and sexual molestation. Steyn and others  had to defend themselves against the hitherto unknown crime of “personal defamation of a Nobel prize recipient“.

The link between global warming and sex crimes was evident in other places quite early in the piece. You may recall this story from a year ago …

Study: Global Warming Will Cause 180,000 More Rapes by 2099

So far as I know the study was not conducted in the IPCC offices. However earlier this month a woman research analyst lodged a complaint alleging …

Pachauri committed offences under Sections 354, 354A, 354D, 506 of IPC, which deal with outraging the modesty of a woman, sexual harassment, stalking, and criminal intimidation, respectively.

The matter hit the press in the Economic Times (of India) on February the 18th. The Economic Times was hit by the full force of the outraged Pachauriderm and withdrew the article post haste. It was the old “I was hacked” defence …

The said email has indicated misuse of my computer resources and communication devices, without my permission or consent. From your email, I have come to know the factum that my computer resources including my email ids, mobile phone and WhatsApp messages have been hacked and that unknown cyber criminals have gone ahead and have unauthorisedly accessed my computer resources and communication devices and further committed various criminal activities.

He had, of course, filed complaints regarding the hacking with the commissioner of police, the controller of certifying authorities and the adjudicating officer under the Information Technology Act.

That prompted this very unsportsmanlike cartoon …

josh-patchy-resignsAnd as the cartoon notes, his resignation.

The resignation letter has been described asa two page love letter to himself” but most significantly it contains the very telling snippet that I quoted yesterday …

For me the protection of Planet Earth, the survival of all species and sustainability of our ecosystems is more than a mission. It is my religion and my dharma.

Please take note of the word religion.

 

Grim for the reaper’s assistants …

Sydney has had a mild winter …

”We’ve seen the biggest drop in business in a generation,” said Andrew Smith, chief executive of InvoCare, the largest private funeral, cemetery and crematorium operator in the Asia-Pacific region. ”Winter is usually our busiest time, but there’s been no real flu season this year and no real cold snaps, and that’s being reflected in a big drop in business.”

Wollongong mortician Warwick Hansen has been in the industry for 47 years. ”It’s probably the slowest winter I’ve ever seen,” he said. ”We’ve had a 10 to 15 per cent drop in the death rate. Talking to other people in the industry, suppliers and coffin makers, they are all saying they have been affected.” SMH.

I guess the thermageddon alarmists won’t be publicising that.

More heat than light …

Just imagine a world with a carbon tax so great that energy was so expensive that all the industrialized countries reduced their carbon emissions by 60%.

We could stay home, cold in the winter and hot in the summer and rejoice in the knowledge that by 2050 we will have reduced global warming by 0.064°C, by 2100 our privation will make a difference of 0.192°C. Hey guys that’s very nearly two whole tenths of one degree!

This assumes that climate sensitivity is 3.0°C in line with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC).  This is probably an overestimate, recent global temperature behavior makes a value of 1.5°C more likely. In which case the reduction would be less …  0.042°C by 2050, 0.116°C by 2100.

Of course Australia’s contribution would be about 1.34% of that i.e. less than 0.0026°C by 2100 (at 3° sensitivity or 0.0016°C at 1.5°.)

You wouldn’t notice the difference in temperature but you would notice the difference in the cost of living.

The background to these calculations can be found at The Cato Institute where you can find a handy little calculator to try some other scenarios.

World temperature …

Arctic ice at record lows, Antarctic ice at record highs.

All to be expected in a warming world says Seth Borenstein …

Shifts in wind patterns and the giant ozone hole over the Antarctic this time of year — both related to human activity — are probably behind the increase in ice, experts say. This subtle growth in winter sea ice since scientists began measuring it in 1979 was initially surprising, they say, but makes sense the more it is studied.

Of course it makes sense, warmer water more ice. That must be why the experts predicted the opposite, as catalogued by Jo Nova

The IPCC Experts in AR4 prediction (thanks to Bishop Hill)

“In 20th- and 21st-century simulations, antarctic sea ice cover is projected to decrease more slowly than in the Arctic (Figures 10.13c,d and 10.14),”

See also IPCC #15.4.4where they discuss the impact of decreasing sea ice, but not of the possibility it might increase.

USGS (2010):

Ice shelves are retreating in the southern section of the Antarctic Peninsula due to climate change. This could result in glacier retreat and sea-level rise if warming continues

British Antarctic Survey:A thaw of Antarctic ice is outpacing predictions by the U.N. climate panel and could in the worst case drive up world sea levels by 2 meters (6 ft) by 2100, a leading expert said on Wednesday.

Byrd Polar Research Center at Ohio State University:

Most models predict that both precipitation and temperature will increase over Antarctica with a warming of the planet.

Al Gore, Jan 2012

What happens to the rest of the world as that frozen water is released, at ever increasing rates, as a result of the rising temperatures caused by climate change?

[In 1988] Scientists expected that as climate change accelerated, Antarctica would be one of the fastest warming areas of the planet. This prediction has proven true

Well not according to the …

Latest ICEsat estimates thanks to Zwally et al:

“During 2003 to 2008, the mass gain of the Antarctic ice sheet from snow accumulation exceeded the mass loss from ice discharge by 49 Gt/yr”

Latest GRACE satellite data also shows Antarctica is gaining ice mass.

And how quickly are we warming, take a look at the latest Hadcrut 4 data …

 

Over the last 15 years you’d have a lot of trouble picking a signal out of the noise.

Oh, why won’t the climate do what the models tell it to?

Data adjustment …

Anthony Watts suspended his blog Watts Up With That a couple of days ago ahead of a press release. Two hot issues for the unsettled scientists have been the siting of weather recording stations and the subsequent “correction” of data. Watts reports …

The USHCN is one of the main metrics used to gauge the temperature changes in the United States. The first wide scale effort to address siting issues, Watts, (2009), a collated photographic survey, showed that approximately 90% of USHCN stations were compromised by encroachment of urbanity in the form of heat sinks and sources, such as concrete, asphalt, air conditioning system heat exchangers, roadways, airport tarmac, and other issues. This finding was backed up by an August 2011 U.S. General Accounting Office investigation and report titled: Climate Monitoring: NOAA Can Improve Management of the U.S. Historical Climatology Network.

which addresses the first issue, and regarding adjustments …

A reanalysis of U.S. surface station temperatures has been performed using the recently WMO-approved Siting Classification System devised by METEO-France’s Michel Leroy. The new siting classification more accurately characterizes the quality of the location in terms of monitoring long-term spatially representative surface temperature trends. The new analysis demonstrates that reported 1979-2008 U.S. temperature trends are spuriously doubled, with 92% of that over-estimation resulting from erroneous NOAA adjustments of well-sited stations upward.

The new improved assessment, for the years 1979 to 2008, yields a trend of +0.155C per decade from the high quality sites, a +0.248 C per decade trend for poorly sited locations, and a trend of +0.309 C per decade after NOAA adjusts the data.

It certainly unsettles me that warming owes more to the adjustments than to carbon dioxide!